Where Macro Meets Reality
Independent research focused on power, energy, industry, and money
Foundations
How we see the world
What we analyse
Macro, grounded in reality.
Active Access 21 analyzes global macro developments by focusing on the forces that ultimately shape outcomes: power, energy, industrial capacity, demographics, and money. We study how states, markets, and institutions behave when faced with real-world constraints - instead of how they claim they will behave under ideal conditions.
How our lens differs
Constraints matter more than narratives.
We prioritize material limits over policy intent, incentives over rhetoric, and capability over promises. When constraints tighten and trade-offs become unavoidable, decision-making shifts—often faster and more decisively than consensus expects.
Strategic Orientation
Understanding what follows.
Our work is designed to clarify what is changing, what is breaking, and what remains durable. By focusing on structural pressures rather than short-term noise, we help readers understand how the global system is adjusting to tighter limits and higher friction.
Research Output
01
Thematic Research
Applying realism to core domains.
Focused research on power, energy, demographics, industrial capacity, and monetary regimes - examined through a realism-based framework.
02
Scenario Analysis
Exploring plausible paths forward.
Structured scenarios examining how macro, geopolitical, and policy outcomes evolve under different constraints and shocks.
03
Tactical Notes
Interpreting emerging developments.
Shorter-form analysis of policy decisions, market stress points, and emerging inflection moments—filtered through structure rather than headlines.
04
Portfolio Framework
Translating structure into allocation logic.
A high-level reference framework that reflects how long-term structural trends may translate into asset-class exposure over time.